Thursday 28 February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, thus starting a conflict that could have serious consequences not only in the country but also internationally. Know the main keys to understand why this situation has occurred and how it can end.
February 28, 2022 will remain in the memory of the whole world as the day on which Russia invaded Ukraine , thus initiating an international conflict that puts the already established world order in check and that can generate very serious military, political and economic consequences.
However, to understand the magnitude of the conflict, a series of keys must be taken into account: what is its origin, how is it developing, what role does NATO play or what are the possible consequences.
Conflict and Timeline Russia invaded Ukraine
The bad relationship between Russia and Ukraine goes back a long way . The coming to power of pro-Russian Victor Yanukovych in 2010 gave rise to Putin’s hope of continuing to control Ukraine. However, the Russian president’s intention to condition Ukraine’s gas prices to its entry into the post-Soviet union, brought the Ukrainian closer to the European Union.
Putin rectified and Yanukovych changed his mind about signing an integration agreement with the EU, which led to violent protests that ended with the expulsion of the country’s president . Given this, Putin decided to annex Crimea in March 2014 and sent troops to the Donbass area -eastern Ukraine- who clashed with the locals, generating thousands of deaths. The consequence? The self-proclamation of the Independent People’s Republics: Donetsk and Lugansk.
In June 2017, the Ukrainian Parliament led by Petro Poroshenko established NATO accession as a priority objective for the country and in 2019, the objective of joining both the Alliance and the EU was included in the Constitution. Earlier this year, Volodymyr Zelensky snatched the Ukrainian presidency from Poroshenko after sweeping the general election.
In recent years, Russia has been increasing its military presence in controlled areas of Ukraine as well as funding pro-Russian separatist leaders handpicked by Putin. Between January and April 2021, Russia began moving military troops into Ukraine, prompting warnings from the EU and the US.
Why has Russia invaded Ukraine?
One of the most important details of the conflict of Russia invaded Ukraine is Ukraine’s membership in the European Union and NATO , something desired by the country, but to which Putin opposes because among the negotiations that took place during the dissolution of the former USSR was that no territory that had belonged to it, joined the Atlantic Alliance Treaty.
What is NATO and which countries are part of it?
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATO or Atlantic Alliance, is an international organization of a political and military nature, whose objective is to guarantee the freedom and security of its members through political and military means. According to article 5, “The parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them, occurring in Europe or North America, will be considered as an attack directed against all of them”.
NATO was founded by the United States, Canada, Belgium, Denmark, France, the Netherlands, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Norway, the United Kingdom, and Portugal . The rest of the incorporations have been staggered:
1952: Greece and Turkey.
1955: Federal Republic of Germany.
1999: Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic.
2004: Romania, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Slovakia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
2009: Albania and Croatia.
2020: North Macedonia.
The reason Russia does not want Ukraine to join NATO
Ukraine is not a member of NATO and this is one of the keys to the crisis that is shaking the international scene these days. The country presided over by Vladimir Putin does not look favorably on Ukraine’s entry into NATO , something he considers a threat to his country from him.
The motives? According to the president of the Elcano Royal Institute, José Juan Ruiz, it could have to do with the fact that Putin would not want a country so close to his own and so close to his capital to be able to host NATO troops.
What sanctions have been imposed on Russia: are they effective?
Due to Russia invaded Ukraine, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Canada and the United States have issued a joint statement announcing a new battery of economic sanctions against Russia , which will harm Putin’s ability to finance his war and have an eroding impact on the economy. Likewise, the European Commission has also joined establishing new sanctions:
Paralyze the assets of the Central Bank of Russia: this measure will freeze the entity’s transactions “to the point of making it impossible for the Central Bank to liquidate its assets.
Remove Russian banks from the Swift system: With the exclusion of Russian banks from the global Swift system, their banking operations would be seriously complicated because they would not be able to make international payments or collections with the rest of the entities that use this system.
Total closure of European airspace to all Russian aircraft.
Ban on the broadcast of RT and Sputnik .
Swift’s role in the war and expulsion from Russia
The Society for World Interbank Financial Telecommunication , better known by its acronym Swift, is a cooperative of financial companies, mainly banks, to which it provides services and which has been directed since July 1, 2019 by the Spanish Javier Pérez-Tasso.
It was created in 1973, once it had been established in national capital with over two hundred entities; in 1976 it already had over five hundred members in additional than fifteen countries, however it had been still in trials and it had been not till 1977 that the primary messages began to be sent.
The main reason Swift is usually notable for is as a global code that gives its partners with associate encrypted electronic communication service that permits international fund transfers . Swift determines the bank codes, referred to as BICs, that square measure necessary to form or receive a global transfer, therefore it will become a awfully great tool for Europe if it needs to isolate Russia economically.
Which countries square measure allies of Russia and that of Ukraine?
Its main ally is the United States , but it also has the support of the 27 members of the European Union, Great Britain and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
On the opposite side, the countries that support Russia are those that form the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) , a military alliance that was created after the fall of the Soviet Union and to which they belong, in addition to Russia, Armenia, Belarus , Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
Outside the region, it maintains a close relationship with China , a country with which they usually act in coordination before the United Nations, and with North Korea.
Other countries that are running in favor of the offensive because they are enemies of the US are: Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Iran and Syria .
How long will the war last?
It is difficult to predict how long the Russian attack on Ukraine may last. Depending on the scenario it can be extended more or less in time . Experts point out that if Russia determined it, it could take Kyiv in a few hours. But there are other hypotheses that can make it a long conflict, if it turns into a guerrilla war or a shorter one if agreements are reached to resolve the war or if the sanctions manage to stop Putin’s momentum.
This is how the conflict affects World.
In Spain, businessmen are asking for diplomatic negotiations to be strengthened due to the importance and impact that sanctions against Russia can have on Spanish imports and exports. Putin said that there would be a harsh response to the sanctions that have already been imposed on leaders of the Russian regime and companies in that country.
Ukraine is one of the world’s largest exporters of wheat . That is why Spanish farmers and ranchers ask the European Union not to look the other way. Because 27.6% of Spain’s maize imports come from Ukraine, as well as 60% of purchases abroad of sunflower oil, 31% of vegetable oil cakes.